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Pick’em Results: Wild Card Weekend

January 9, 2012

I’m proud to say I had a strong weekend. So did that help at all against my competition?

Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) at Houston Texans (10-6)
Detroit Lions (10-6) at New Orleans Saints (13-3)
Atlanta Falcons (10-6) at New York Giants (9-7)
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) at Denver Broncos (8-8)

—————————————————————————

Week totals: 3-1 overall record, 9 points
Season totals: 164-96 record and 291 points

My competitors include:

  • Cold, Hard Football Facts: 172-88 and 305 points
  • ESPN Accuscore: 177-83 and 321 points
  • Top ESPN pundit: Mark Schlereth with 170-90 and 302 points
  • Top NFLN pundit: Michael Irvin with 176-84 and 311 points
  • Pete Prisco, CBS: 164-96 and 297 points

It’s not great, but it’s a start to redemption. Next week says much more.

2011 NFL Pick’em: Wild Card Weekend

January 6, 2012

As the playoffs start, the point total for each game increase to three points apiece. I’ll have some room to work with to avoid finishing in the cellar this year.

Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) at Houston Texans (10-6)
Detroit Lions (10-6) at New Orleans Saints (13-3)
Atlanta Falcons (10-6) at New York Giants (9-7)
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) at Denver Broncos (8-8)

2011 TABR Regular Season: Opponent Adjustments

January 4, 2012

As the regular season closes, this will become the official basis for the playoff adjustments. It will be interesting to see how this affects who may sneak away with an upset. Let the fun begin!

Opponent Adjustment = [(Average Opponent TABR – 175.00) / 5] ^ 1.60

Note: RTABR = Raw TABR; QR = quality opponent record; Avg Opp = average opponent’s TABR

Team RTABR (QR) Avg Opp Team RTABR (QR) Avg Opp
27. Buffalo 48.70 (2-5) 183.26 15. Dallas 175.77 (2-6) 158.10
20. Miami 150.55 (0-6) 169.38 11. New York 202.75 (4-5) 192.69
4. New England 369.67 (2-2) 134.02 10. Philadelphia 233.11 (3-5) 165.29
16. New York 170.07 (1-5) 170.08 26. Washington 63.57 (3-6) 169.04
Team RTABR (QR) Avg Opp Team RTABR (QR) Avg Opp
5. Baltimore 311.13 (6-2) 152.70 17. Chicago 168.07 (3-5) 194.10
14. Cincinnati 179.58 (2-6) 157.18 9. Detroit 266.65 (1-5) 189.80
28. Cleveland 46.65 (1-9) 182.54 1. Green Bay 441.74 (5-0) 142.85
7. Pittsburgh 283.05 (5-4) 166.72 29. Minnesota 8.00 (0-6) 195.92
Team RTABR (QR) Avg Opp Team RTABR (QR) Avg Opp
5. Houston 318.68 (4-3) 141.14 9. Atlanta 245.83 (4-4) 172.19
32. Indianapolis -52.03 (2-8) 200.37 13. Carolina 190.66 (1-7) 168.88
26. Jacksonville 60.54 (2-7) 171.20 3. New Orleans 350.76 (6-1) 142.16
17. Tennessee 169.56 (2-5) 146.71 30. Tampa Bay -33.19 (2-8) 221.24
Team RTABR (QR) Avg Opp Team RTABR (QR) Avg Opp
22. Denver 111.30 (1-4) 174.22 28. Arizona 44.70 (4-6) 167.72
23. Kansas City 106.28 (1-3) 162.84 2. San Francisco 367.66 (7-2) 132.42
19. Oakland 147.43 (1-3) 170.89 11. Seattle 214.94 (3-6) 169.98
21. San Diego 136.51 (1-3) 169.98 31. St. Louis -47.18 (1-11) 223.89

Easiest Schedule: San Francisco, Hardest Schedule: St. Louis

Now let’s see how schedule adjustments and formula changes affected the new adjusted TABR.

2011 Regular Season TABRankings (Adjusted)
1(1) Green Bay Packers (15-1) 441.74 – 19.64 = 422.10
2(3) New Orleans Saints (13-3) 374.53 – 20.32 = 354.21
3(2) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) 375.90 – 30.79 = 345.11
4(4) New England Patriots (13-3) 369.67 – 28.96 = 340.71

5(5) Baltimore Ravens (12-4) 311.33 – 10.94 = 300.39
6(7) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) 283.05 – 2.24 = 280.81
7(6) Houston Texans (10-6) 300.91 – 21.34 = 279.57

8(9) Detroit Lions (10-6) 266.65 + 5.68 = 272.33
9(8) Atlanta Falcons (10-6) 270.56 – 0.40 = 270.16
10(10) Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) 233.11 – 2.89 = 230.22
11(11) New York Giants (9-7) 202.75 + 7.55 = 210.30
12(12) Seattle Seahawks (7-9) 190.21 – 1.01 = 189.20
13(17) Chicago Bears (8-8) 168.07 + 8.54 = 176.61
14(14) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) 179.58 – 7.64 = 171.94
15(13) Tennessee Titans (9-7) 186.32 – 16.01 = 170.31
16(16) New York Jets (8-8) 170.07 – 0.97 = 169.10
17(15) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) 175.77 – 7.02 = 168.75
18(18) San Diego Chargers (8-8) 161.25 – 1.01 = 160.24
19(19) Carolina Panthers (6-10) 151.57 – 1.38 = 150.19
20(20) Miami Dolphins (6-10) 150.55 – 1.21 = 149.34
21(22) Oakland Raiders (8-8) 128.92 – 0.73 = 128.19
22(21) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) 129.49 – 4.15 = 125.34
23(23) Denver Broncos (8-8) 90.85 – 0.05 = 90.80
24(24) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) 86.35 – 0.64 = 85.71
25(25) Arizona Cardinals (8-8) 68.75 – 1.82 = 66.93
26(26) Washington Redskins (5-11) 63.57 – 1.32 = 62.25
27(27) Buffalo Bills (6-10) 48.70 + 2.23 = 50.93
28(28) Cleveland Browns (4-12) 46.65 + 1.93 =48.58
29(29) Minnesota Vikings (3-13) 8.00 + 9.88 = 17.88
30(30) Saint Louis Rams (2-14) -52.01 + 38.41 = -13.60
31(31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) -57.68 + 35.13 = -22.55
32(32) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) -63.12 + 13.44 = -49.68

2011 TABRankings — Regular Season

January 3, 2012

And just like that, the regular season comes to an end. Boy, didn’t those 17 weeks go by fast? For 22 teams and their loyal fan bases, the focus is now on September 2012.

According to the TABRankings, there are some teams that can be happy for something, despite missing the postseason. The Eagles (10th) and Seahawks (12th) are two teams like were “good enough” to make the playoffs without doing so. Both teams greatly outplayed their record. The Eagles went 8-8 with 9.8 Pythagorean Wins, while the Seahawks went 7-9 with 8.2 Pythagorean Wins. Expect both teams to improve their records in 2012.

Meanwhile, the 8-8 Broncos make the playoffs with the 23th rank in the TABRankings and a few helpings of Tebow Time. All Tebow did this year was make a below-average team crawl into the playoffs. Yes, he did some great things in late-game situations, but overall he just fed into the painful mediocrity of the Denver Broncos. Good thing is, Tebow and the triple option has made close games out of potential blowouts, so a playoff win isn’t out of the question.

Check out the final regular season rankings in the 2011 season. Playoff teams are in bold.

The TABRankings 3.0 formula:
(W-L Pct)+(Away Pct/2)+(Division Pct/2)+(Pythagorean Pct/2)+(Time Ahead Avg x 2)+(Third Down Differential x 2)+(TO Margin x 3)-(Fumbles Kept Diff)+(DVOA Rating x 2)
**DVOA is the creation of Football Outsiders. I own no rights to DVOA.**

The TABR Regular Season top eight:
1 , 2, 3, 4
5, 6, 7, 8
——— ——— ——— ——— ——— ——— ——— ——— ——— ——— ——— ——— ——— ——— ———

2011 Regular Season TABRankings
1(1) Green Bay Packers (15-1) 441.74
2(2) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) 375.90
3(3) New Orleans Saints (13-3) 374.53
4(4) New England Patriots (13-3) 369.67
5(6) Baltimore Ravens (12-4) 311.33
6(5) Houston Texans (10-6) 300.91
7(8) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) 283.05
8(9) Atlanta Falcons (10-6) 270.56
9(7) Detroit Lions (10-6) 266.65
10(10) Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) 233.11
11(16) New York Giants (9-7) 202.75
12(11) Seattle Seahawks (7-9) 190.21
13(17) Tennessee Titans (9-7) 186.32
14(14) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) 179.58
15(12) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) 175.77
–AVERAGE MARK (175.00)–
16(15) New York Jets (8-8) 170.07
17(18) Chicago Bears (8-8) 168.07
18(21) San Diego Chargers (8-8) 161.25
19(13) Carolina Panthers (6-10) 151.57
20(20) Miami Dolphins (6-10) 150.55
21(23) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) 129.49
22(19) Oakland Raiders (8-8) 128.92
23(22) Denver Broncos (8-8) 90.85
24(26) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) 86.35
25(28) Arizona Cardinals (8-8) 68.75
26(24) Washington Redskins (5-11) 63.57
27(25) Buffalo Bills (6-10) 48.70
28(27) Cleveland Browns (4-12) 46.65
29(29) Minnesota Vikings (3-13) 8.00
30(31) Saint Louis Rams (2-14) -52.01
31(30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) -57.68
32(32) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) -63.12

Pick’em Results: Week 17

January 2, 2012

Well, it wasn’t a perfect week, with a big thanks to Jets losing a game most picked the Dolphins to win. However, there was some ground that was gained. My on-air declaration was “Giants 34, Cowboys 30” for the final game. Too bad the Cowboys couldn’t keep up their part  to make it a close game. Even the conservative Giants (conservative in the second half at least) scored 31 points. Overall, it made a for an impressive week. Maybe it continues into the playoffs!

Games of the Week (3 points each)
(19) Tennessee Titans (8-7) at (5) Houston Texans (10-5)
(6) Baltimore Ravens (11-4) at (17) Cincinnati Bengals (9-6)
(12) Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at (13) New York Giants (8-7)

The Rest of Divisional Games (2 points each)
(7) Detroit Lions (10-5) at (1) Green Bay Packers (14-1)
(32) Indianapolis Colts (2-13) at (26) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11)
(14) New York Jets (8-7) at (20) Miami Dolphins (5-10)
(16) Chicago Bears (7-8) at (29) Minnesota Vikings (3-12)
(25) Buffalo Bills (6-9) at (4) New England Patriots (12-3)
(15) Carolina Panthers (6-9) at (3) New Orleans Saints (12-3)
(24) Washington Redskins (5-10) at (10) Philadelphia Eagles (7-8)
(2) San Francisco 49ers (12-3) at (31) St. Louis Rams (2-13)
(11) Seattle Seahawks (7-8) at (28) Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
(30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11) at (9) Atlanta Falcons (9-6)
(8) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) at (27) Cleveland Browns (4-11)
(23) Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) at (22) Denver Broncos (8-7)
(21) San Diego Chargers (7-8) at (18) Oakland Raiders (8-7)

—————————————————————————

Week totals: 12-4 overall record, 27 points
Season totals: 161-95 record and 282 points
More totals: 34-17 GOTW, 56-40 division, 14-2 locks, 4-12 upsets
Lock of the Week: Six-week streak (Chiefs, Vikings, Colts, Browns, Jaguars, Rams)

My competitors include:

  • Cold, Hard Football Facts: 170-86 and 299 points
  • ESPN Accuscore: 174-82 and 312 points
  • Top ESPN pundit: Seth Wickersham with 167-89 and 298 points
  • Top NFLN pundit: Michael Irvin with 175-81 and 309 points
  • Pete Prisco, CBS: 163-93 and 294 points

Let’s look at a recap of what I need to get to during the playoffs.

2009: 175-92 record, 319 of 490 points (65.1%)
I didn’t compare my predictions to any experts, but I participated in a points-based predictions pool with some of my local friends from Ewing. In the Street Crew Pick’em, I finished in first place with a strong finish in the postseason.

2010: 172-95 record, 347 of 523 points (66.3%)
The good times roll as I battle against the experts. I competed against four opponents: ESPN Accuscore, the ESPN experts, Pete Prisco and Cold, Hard Football Facts. I finished in second place of 12 in both record and total points. Better yet, no human was able to top the TAB Pick’em machine. However, ESPN’s Accuscore put its heartless, metallic hands on the faux trophy.

2011: ???
Unless I finish with a near-perfect playoffs, I clearly took a step down the chain. As of now, after conquering all humans for two seasons, I’m now basically the runt at the bottom of the mountain. For now, I must make the best of what I’ve done in the regular season.

2011 NFL Pick’em: Week 17

December 31, 2011

No commentary due to the holiday weekend. Have a happy new year!

(Note: With Week 17 being an all-divisional week, and the rest of the season being the playoffs, there will be no more upset specials and no more locks.)

Games of the Week (3 points each)
(19) Tennessee Titans (8-7) at (5) Houston Texans (10-5)
(6) Baltimore Ravens (11-4) at (17) Cincinnati Bengals (9-6)
(12) Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at (13) New York Giants (8-7)

The Rest of Divisional Games (2 points each)
(7) Detroit Lions (10-5) at (1) Green Bay Packers (14-1)
(32) Indianapolis Colts (2-13) at (26) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11)
(14) New York Jets (8-7) at (20) Miami Dolphins (5-10)
(16) Chicago Bears (7-8) at (29) Minnesota Vikings (3-12)
(25) Buffalo Bills (6-9) at (4) New England Patriots (12-3)
(15) Carolina Panthers (6-9) at (3) New Orleans Saints (12-3)
(24) Washington Redskins (5-10) at (10) Philadelphia Eagles (7-8)
(2) San Francisco 49ers (12-3) at (31) St. Louis Rams (2-13)
(11) Seattle Seahawks (7-8) at (28) Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
(30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11) at (9) Atlanta Falcons (9-6)
(8) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) at (27) Cleveland Browns (4-11)
(23) Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) at (22) Denver Broncos (8-7)
(21) San Diego Chargers (7-8) at (18) Oakland Raiders (8-7)

2011 TABR Week 16: Opponent Adjustments

December 29, 2011

Just a reminder, the capped exponent for opponent adjustment will be at 1.6 as the regular season concludes. However, for this week, it’s at 1.59.

Opponent Adjustment = [(Average Opponent TABR – 175.00) / 5] ^ 1.59

Note: RTABR = Raw TABR; QR = quality opponent record; Avg Opp = average opponent’s TABR

Team RTABR (QR) Avg Opp Team RTABR (QR) Avg Opp
25. Buffalo 70.26 (2-5) 168.87 12. Dallas 200.81 (2-6) 156.21
20. Miami 140.91 (0-7) 170.93 16. New York 177.85 (4-5) 193.60
4. New England 350.32 (4-2) 141.65 10. Philadelphia 215.42 (4-5) 171.01
15. New York 184.74 (1-5) 167.94 24. Washington 78.83 (3-7) 166.90
Team RTABR (QR) Avg Opp Team RTABR (QR) Avg Opp
6. Baltimore 302.09 (6-1) 149.14 18. Chicago 156.84 (4-5) 209.47
14. Cincinnati 187.46 (1-5) 147.47 7. Detroit 283.61 (2-4) 173.52
27. Cleveland 44.99 (1-7) 175.00 1. Green Bay 437.62 (5-0) 134.03
8. Pittsburgh 280.74 (4-4) 170.50 29. Minnesota 13.70 (1-6) 198.56
Team RTABR (QR) Avg Opp Team RTABR (QR) Avg Opp
5. Houston 318.68 (3-3) 134.15 9. Atlanta 245.83 (5-4) 191.24
32. Indianapolis -52.03 (1-8) 204.20 13. Carolina 190.66 (1-5) 152.54
26. Jacksonville 60.54 (1-8) 187.67 3. New Orleans 350.76 (6-1) 142.34
17. Tennessee 169.56 (2-5) 139.11 30. Tampa Bay -33.19 (2-8) 219.04
Team RTABR (QR) Avg Opp Team RTABR (QR) Avg Opp
22. Denver 111.30 (2-3) 177.95 28. Arizona 44.70 (4-6) 169.90
23. Kansas City 106.28 (1-4) 169.73 2. San Francisco 367.66 (7-2) 147.38
19. Oakland 147.43 (2-3) 171.56 11. Seattle 214.94 (3-6) 171.77
21. San Diego 136.51 (1-4) 172.21 31. St. Louis -47.18 (1-10) 210.90

Easiest Schedule: Green Bay, Hardest Schedule: Tampa Bay

Now let’s see how schedule adjustments and formula changes affected the new adjusted TABR.

2011 TABRankings – Week 16
Super Bowl Contenders (280 or more)
1(1) Green Bay Packers (14-1) 409.28
2(2) San Francisco 49ers (12-3) 352.52
3(3) New Orleans Saints (12-3) 330.99
4(4) New England Patriots (12-3) 329.89
5(5) Houston Texans (10-5) 290.47
6(6) Baltimore Ravens (11-4) 288.45
7(7) Detroit Lions (10-5) 283.47
Other Contenders (210 to 280)
8(8) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) 279.89
9(9) Atlanta Falcons (9-6) 252.34
10(10) Philadelphia Eagles (7-8) 214.72
11(11) Seattle Seahawks (7-8) 214.44
Dangerous Pretenders (150 to 210)
12(12) Dallas Cowboys (8-7) 192.60
13(16) New York Giants (8-7) 185.93
14(15) New York Jets (8-7) 183.01
15(13) Carolina Panthers (6-9) 179.76
16(18) Chicago Bears (7-8) 178.38
–AVERAGE MARK (175.00)–
17(14) Cincinnati Bengals (9-6) 172.40
Other Pretenders (35 to 150)
18(19) Oakland Raiders (8-7) 146.88
19(17) Tennessee Titans (8-7) 146.60
20(20) Miami Dolphins (5-10) 140.19
21(21) San Diego Chargers (7-8) 136.11
22(22) Denver Broncos (8-7) 111.73
23(23) Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) 105.19
24(24) Washington Redskins (5-10) 76.68
25(25) Buffalo Bills (6-9) 68.88
26(26) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11) 64.93
27(27) Cleveland Browns (4-11) 44.99
28(28) Arizona Cardinals (7-8) 43.67
Bottom Dwellers (35 or fewer)
29(29) Minnesota Vikings (3-12) 25.36
30(30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11) -1.40
31(31) Saint Louis Rams (2-13) -24.21
32(32) Indianapolis Colts (2-13) -35.49