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All Good Things Must Come to an End

February 12, 2012

As it’s the first week without football, it’s time to reshift the sports world. Usually, here at TABSports, the  focus shifts over to college basketball. However, this time around, the focus doesn’t move on to something new. Instead, I personally move on to something new.

With the end of this football season comes the end of The AdamBomb Sports. While I enjoyed having this blog for three years, it’s time to onto something newer and better.

So what’s to come next? For starters, I was recently involved with Football Nation and Cold, Hard Football Facts. There, I used many of the basic tenants I used during the 2011 NFL season preview. So spawned the Mathletics series on CHFF, where the basic principles of normal distribution and regression to the mean (in statistical theory) tell us what changes will come from year-to-year in the NFL.

That will be the focus for a new venture, which will come soon on a new website. In this new website, I’ll answer a few basic questions:

  • What ways can regression to the mean guarantee a team’s improvement or decline?
  • Which stats are more prone to following normal distribution?
  • Are the stats that are more prone to normal distribution more trustworthy than stats that are less prone to normal distribution?
  • Does these phenomena only apply to the NFL, where there’s a 16-game regular season?

Hopefully, as I answer these few questions, I can soon answer more questions. Ideally, it will hopefully open a brand new way of thinking about the math behind sports.

I’ll provide details soon with basically information about what and where the new website will be. Until then, thank you so much to all the viewers on this blog!

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Pick’em Results: Super Bowl XLVI and Season Results

February 6, 2012

Well, I incorrectly chose the New England Patriots (15-3) over the New York Giants (12-7) in Super Bowl XLVI. As a result, I finish 166-101 for the season with 301 points. Compared to my first two seasons, this was a terrible year.

2009: 175-92 record, 319 of 490 points (65.1%)
I didn’t compare my predictions to any experts, but I participated in a points-based predictions pool with some of my local friends from Ewing. In the Street Crew Pick’em, I finished in first place with a strong finish in the postseason.

2010: 172-95 record, 347 of 523 points (66.3%)
The good times roll as I battle against the experts. I competed against four opponents: ESPN Accuscore, the ESPN experts, Pete Prisco and Cold, Hard Football Facts. I finished in second place of 12 in both record and total points. Better yet, no human was able to top the TAB Pick’em machine. However, ESPN’s Accuscore put its heartless, metallic hands on the faux trophy.

2011: 166-101 record, 301 of 523 points (57.6%)
I clearly took a step down the chain. I finish near the bottom of the pack among the 16 in this competition. Perhaps you can call it a championship loser’s curse. Perhaps you can call it a loss of my touch. Perhaps you can call it bad luck. No matter what the case is, the 2012 season must bring better outcomes to protect my reputation.

2011 NFL Pick’em: Super Bowl XLVI

February 4, 2012

Well, let’s just end my horrible season with picking the New England Patriots (15-3) over the New York Giants (12-7) for 20 points in Super Bowl XLVI. No team who’s been outscored in the regular season made the Super Bowl before the Giants, and Tom Brady will look for his fourth Super Bowl championship while getting revenge on the Giants for the Super Bowl XLII loss.

Then again, with the way this season is going, maybe a Giants win would only be fitting.

Pick’em Results: Conference Championships

January 23, 2012

Well, last night, I kissed goodbye to any chance to finishing well this year.

Baltimore Ravens (13-4) at New England Patriots (14-3)
New York Giants (11-7) at San Francisco 49ers (14-3)

—————————————————————————

Week totals: 0-2 overall record, 0 points
Season totals: 166-100 record and 301 points

My competitors include:

  • Cold, Hard Football Facts: 176-90 and 330 points
  • ESPN Accuscore: 180-86 and 341 points
  • Top ESPN pundit: Mark Schlereth with 174-92 and 332 points
  • Top NFLN pundit: Michael Irvin with 178-88 and 321 points
  • Pete Prisco, CBS: 169-97 and 332 points

2011 NFL Pick’em: Conference Championships

January 21, 2012

With a late chance at saving grace, and 10 points for each game, it’s up to a super Har-browl to get me to that point. Wish me luck!

Baltimore Ravens (13-4) at New England Patriots (14-3)
New York Giants (11-7) at San Francisco 49ers (14-3)

Pick’em Results: Divisional Round

January 16, 2012

In a weekend of surprises and chaos, I finish with a mediocre record this weekend. Does that prevent me from getting a chance to make a last-season comeback?

New Orleans Saints (14-3) at San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
Denver Broncos (9-8) at New England Patriots (13-3)
Houston Texans (11-6) at Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
New York Giants (10-7) at Green Bay Packers (15-1)

—————————————————————————

Week totals: 2-2 overall record, 10 points
Season totals: 166-98 record and 301 points

My competitors include:

  • Cold, Hard Football Facts: 175-89 and 320 points
  • ESPN Accuscore: 179-85 and 331 points
  • Top ESPN pundit: Seth Wickersham with 172-92 and 325 points
  • Top NFLN pundit: Michael Irvin with 178-86 and 321 points
  • Pete Prisco, CBS: 167-97 and 312 points

Both losses were killer. Saving grace might be all that’s left.

2011 NFL Pick’em: Divisional Round

January 13, 2012

As I try to restore some self-respect in this year’s predictions, I must continue to step up as this week’s games count for five points each. This week, I believe the favorites will prevail again.

New Orleans Saints (14-3) at San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
Denver Broncos (9-8) at New England Patriots (13-3)
Houston Texans (11-6) at Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
New York Giants (10-7) at Green Bay Packers (15-1)