Pick’em Results: Week 16
Here’s the thing for my predicting ability this year: it’s all haywire in divisional games. I can’t explain it, but for the fact that the two teams know each other so well. With that familiarity, I don’t find anything to properly analyze the game to determine the winner.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(26) Arizona Cardinals (7-7) at (17) Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)
(16) New York Giants (7-7) at (12) New York Jets (8-6)
(15) San Diego Chargers (7-7) at (9) Detroit Lions (9-5)
Divisional Games (2 points each)
(4) Houston Texans (10-4) at (32) Indianapolis Colts (1-13)
(20) Miami Dolphins (5-9) at (3) New England Patriots (11-3)
(28) Cleveland Browns (4-10) at (6) Baltimore Ravens (10-4)
(22) Oakland Raiders (7-7) at (23) Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)
(29) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) at (19) Carolina Panthers (5-9)
(25) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) at (21) Tennessee Titans (7-7)
(13) Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) at (11) Dallas Cowboys (8-6)
(2) San Francisco 49ers (11-3) at (10) Seattle Seahawks (7-7) *upset special*
(14) Chicago Bears (7-7) at (1) Green Bay Packers (13-1)
(8) Atlanta Falcons (9-5) at (5) New Orleans Saints (11-3)
The Rest (1 point each)
(18) Denver Broncos (8-6) at (27) Buffalo Bills (5-9)
(30) Minnesota Vikings (2-12) at (24) Washington Redskins (5-9)
(31) St. Louis Rams (2-12) at (7) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) *lock pick*
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Week totals: 9-7 overall record, 17 points
Season totals: 149-91 record and 255 points
More totals: 31-17 GOTW, 44-36 division, 14-2 locks, 4-12 upsets
Lock of the Week: Six-week streak (Chiefs, Vikings, Colts, Browns, Jaguars, Rams)
My competitors include:
- Cold, Hard Football Facts: 160-80 and 277 points
- ESPN Accuscore: 161-79 and 285 points
- Top ESPN pundit: Seth Wickersham with 157-83 and 276 points
- Top NFLN pundit: Michael Irvin with 164-76 and 285 points
- Pete Prisco, CBS: 153-87 and 273 points
Let’s face the facts: going only 44-36 in divisional game and 4-12 in upset specials are quite simply unacceptable. Is it poor analysis? Favoring the wrong statistical factors? Bad luck? Going gutsy at the wrong times? The best I can do is look at the history.
2009: 175-92 record, 319 of 490 points
I didn’t compare my predictions to any experts, but I participated in a points-based predictions pool with some of my local friends from Ewing. In the Street Crew Pick’em, I finished in first place with a strong finish in the postseason.
2010: 172-95 record, 347 of 523 points
The good times roll as I battle against the experts. I competed against four opponents: ESPN Accuscore, the ESPN experts, Pete Prisco and Cold, Hard Football Facts. I finished in second place of 12 in both record and total points. Better yet, no human was able to top the TAB Pick’em machine. However, ESPN’s Accuscore put its heartless, metallic hands on the faux trophy.
The mathematics-based predictor finished three games ahead of me. Meanwhile, one game prevented me from winning the points battle: Pittsburgh’s win over Baltimore in the Divisional Round. That game was truly my white whale of the year, as I predicted Green Bay over Baltimore for Super Bowl XLV during the 2010 season preview.
2011: ???
Unless I finish with a perfect Week 17 and perfect playoffs, I clearly took a step down the chain. Points wise, I can save respectability and possibly even pass a few competitors with a sterling finish. However, after conquering all humans for two seasons, I’m now basically the runt at the bottom of the mountain. All I can is wipe that egg off my face, finish like a man on fire, and prove how I’ll be back at the top next year. Everybody’s entitled to one bad year.
