2011 New York Giants Preview

Last Year: 10-6, 10th in TABRankings
2010 Giants: If Giants fans had piece of gold for every late-season disappointment…
2011 Giants: …they would probably get richer this season.

If anyone sums up the New York Giants, its Cold Hard Football Facts. The website called the Giants the “sunshine superman” of the NFL, pummeling weak opponents into mercy while constantly fading late once pressure built and the good teams took the field on the opposing side. Last year was no different from the norm. Despite achieving the defensive improvement the 2010 Giants preview predicted, New York found another way to unceremoniously wipe out their hopes for a successful playoff run. Outside of the amazing Super Bowl XLII, the Giants pull the same trick every year.

Midway through the 2010 season, the Giants owned a 6-2 record with a legitimate chance to earn a first-round bye. Then came a 4-4 finish, including the now infamous Miracle at the New Meadowlands that cost New York a potential division-winning battle against the Eagles. A 31-10 fourth-quarter led quickly went up in smoke, as did the team’s chance to earn a playoff berth. Next week, the Packers decimated Big Blue and put them out of playoff-pursuing misery.

Now with their tri-state bretheren making some huge moves in free agency, the pressure falls on the shoulders of the Giants to avoid another late-season swoon. That schedule can be one tricky thing sometimes…

ADJUSTMENTS: Hanging Tight in the Offseason
The Giants remained very inactive during the free agency period, which criticism from fans. Some wanted the team sign wide receiver Plaxico Burress and Steve Smith. However, the receiver depth seems fine, and the team didn’t need to risk money on a player who missed the last two years (Burress) or a player coming off microfracture surgery (Smith). However, the team let rising tight end Kevin Boss, which very much symbolized how the conservative off-season was a bit much. New York sacrificed effectiveness for cap space.

Combine with the dynamics of a rough preseason so far due to injuries, and the concerns in North Jersey are getting heavier. Cornerback Terrell Thomas and rookie defensive tackle Marvin Austin already are on injured reserve due to season-ending injury. Defensive end Osi Umenyiora also has injury concerns for the early parts of the season, even with him sitting out for a while due to a contract dispute.

The Giants still have an overall strong roster, especially at the offensive skill positions. However, with little news on the roster since January, it seems like New York will be on a downward trend. It certainly doesn’t help that the Giants once again face a much tougher schedule in the second half of the season:

• First half: @ Redskins, Rams, @ Eagles, @ Cardinals, Seahawks, Bills, Dolphins, @ Patriots
• Second half: @ 49ers, Eagles, @ Saints, Packers, @ Cowboys, Redskins, @ Jets, Cowboys

The second half likely will feature six games against playoff teams, possibly seven. That will only continue the team’s bad second-half stretch since 2006. The Giants went 30-10 in the first half and 18-22 in the second half.

TRENDING UP: Manning to Cut Down Interceptions
Since winning Super Bowl XLII, quarterback Eli Manning became one of the most dangerous offensive players in the league. When Manning plays his best, the Giants offense is nearly impossible to stop. Of course, as the “Sunshine Superman” theme applies to New York, Manning can self-district on a switch, especially when facing superior opponents.

Manning’s wild way came to a climax last year, with 25 interceptions thrown and five lost fumbles. Still, Manning played well in stretches with a career-high 31 touchdown passes. As a result, Manning became only the third quarterback in NFL history with a 80+ passer rating despite throwing at least 25 interceptions.

• Danny White, 1980: 28 TD, 25 INT, 80.7 rating (22 TD, 13 INT, 87.5 rating in 1981)
• Lynn Dickey, 1983: 32 TD, 29 INT, 87.3 rating (25 TD, 19 INT, 85.6 rating in 1984)
• Eli Manning, 2010: 31 TD, 25 INT, 85.3 rating

Clearly, Manning will be less erratic, so both the good and bad will even out. As a whole, this should help out the offense. Of the six teams with at least 35 giveaways and takeaways since the realignment in 2002, no team increased their turnovers the following year. For those who believed the Giants were an improved turnover total away from the playoffs in 2010, this regression could be the game-breaker for the Giants. However, there’s another story to tell with the turnover regression.

TRENDING DOWN: Takeaways and Third-Down Defense
According to Football Outsiders, a team’s offense plays more consistent year to year than a team’s defense. I tested this theory by looking at the six teams with at least 35 takeaways and giveaways since 2002. Only one team saw a smaller difference on defense than offense in the turnover battle. Furthermore, each of first five teams saw their records decline the next year.

• 2002 Steelers: 10-5-1, 36 take, 36 give, even TO margin (6-10, 25 take, 28 give, -3 in 2003)
• 2003 Ravens: 10-6, 41 take, 38 give, +3 TO margin (9-7, 34 take, 23 give, +11 in 2004)
• 2003 Rams: 12-4, 46 take, 39 give, +7 TO margin (8-8, 15 take, 39 give, -24 in 2004)
• 2006 Bears: 13-3, 44 take, 36 give, +8 TO margin (7-9, 33 take, 34 give, -1 in 2007)
• 2007 Lions: 7-9, 35 take, 36 give, -1 TO margin (0-16, 20 take, 29 give, -9 in 2008)
• 2010 Giants: 10-6, 42 give, 39 give, +3 TO margin

As the offensive and defense regression is further analyzed, it becomes more apparent in New York’s case that the defense will certainly see more change. Note that the Giants forced 42 fumbles last year, the most since the 2002 Eagles (45). Umenyiora alone forced 10, which will certainly regress considering that he’s expected to miss time in the regular season after already missing nearly all of training camp. Meanwhile, the defense also allowed an NFL-best 31.7 third-down conversion rate.

Takeaway and third-down defensive regression could go very much hand-in-hand. More third down conversions don’t necessarily led to fewer turnovers, but it could make a reasonable causation. Even though the Giants should once again field a strong pass rush, they force as many fumbles and could just as easily see a dip in interceptions as well.

Final Statement: It looks like the Giants could once again shine bright in the first half, only to fall short while navigating the Kryptonite-laden second half. New York could face as much as six opponents with 10+ wins in the second half. With the general conclusion that offense plays more consistent than defense year-to-year, the regression to sanity in the turnover department could actually hurt the Giants on an overall scale. All that leads to another disappointing ending to a year in Big Blue football.

Editor’s note: Preview updated regularly as free agency and training camp transactions occurred. Updates end after publication of the NFL season predictions.