2009 Week 13 TABRankings

Tabulating…

Mounting Pressure Comes with the Week 13 Observations

Welcome to the beginning of the end.  That is, welcome to December in the National Football League.  The weather may be getting colder, and unbearably cold in certain parts of the country, but the pressure that will be mounting in this month will make things heated for most NFL teams.  Of course, we will find out in January whether the pressure sizzles, simmers or simply blows up in teams’ faces.

Already has ESPN’s favorite December storyline began coming out of the woodwork.  After the Cowboys lost a winnable game to the Giants, questions emerged wondering if there will another Month 12 meltdown in Big D.  To be honest, this pressure is deserved.  The Cowboys play their next two games against teams with a seven-game and 12-game winning streak, respectively.  Lose both of them, and the Cowboys could be left in the cold by Christmas.

Meanwhile, the Colts and Saints may be the first duo to start 12-0 together in a season, but don’t think the pressure’s off the domed teams.  In fact, the pressure may be greater.  After watching one of the undefeateds escape yet another game, I began to wonder if these are two of the weakest 12-0 teams.  Football Outsiders have provided compelling evidence that proves my concerns to be legit.  Venture into the group’s Week 13 DVOA Ratings article, and you’ll learn that the two current undefeateds have the worst pythagoreon winning percentages for teams that started 11-0 since 1970.  Furthermore, another table shows the two are among the five most-lucky teams since 1970.  So yes, I would argue that the 2009 Colts and Saints are the two of the weakest 12-0 teams in league history.

The big question comes if these perenially lucky teams can cash in come January.  Honestly, I would be worried come playoff time.  Sure, those domes will be loud, but that’s as far as the advantage goes when it comes to an indoor playoff game.  The Colts and Saints (and even the Vikings) are some of the weaker teams at home in playoffs since moving into a dome.  Also, it’s very important to note that only two pure dome teams (the 1999 Rams and 2006 Colts) have won a Super Bowl.  (Now is the time to make the joke that hole in Texas Stadium’s roof was for God.)

Speaking of the Vikings, you’ll find out later who may be the difference in determining Minnesota’s Super Bowl fate, and I’m not talking about Brett Favre.  Also, learn in this week’s sidebar that two recent superpowers’ failing defenses have likely brought them crashing back to the world of mediocrity (which TABR may confirm; I’m thinking definitely in the case of one team, and maybe in the case of another).

Yes, the pressure is mounting for all these teams.

New York v. Buffalo in Toronto (Jets 19, Bills 13)
Color me excited for NFL football in Canada, but only with a 10% opacity.  It was an unspectacular game in what seems to be an unspectacular football city.  There wasn’t much to note, other than the obvious (Braylon Edwards can’t catch, Mark Sanchez can’t slide, the Bills can’t pass block and Darrelle Revis can own receivers).  Instead, I’m going to do the unusual, in this thread at least, and make a post-game observation.
The Jets’ victory begs the question if Rex Ryan can lead his team to the playoffs in his first season.  Given what the team has with Revis, I think the Jets at least have a decent shot.  The Jets remaining schedule: at Tampa Bay, v. Atlanta, at Indianapolis and v. Cincinnati.  Josh Freeman, like any rookie quarterback has been awful in spurts, but the Jets could lose if he turns it on when throwing at the maddingly inconsistent Lito Sheppard.  Meanwhile, we don’t know if Matt Ryan can return for the Atlanta game, or if the Colts and Bengals will be resting when the Jets face them.  Outside of Revis and few others, I think the team is too short on talent to be a playoff-worthy team, but then again, the Jaguars are in the playoffs as of now while playing just two games against winning teams.

Philadelphia at Atlanta (Eagles 34, Falcons 7)
The Falcons never really threatened in this game, and much of it had to do with the offense failing to pose any threat on offense.  I’ll be honest; I don’t know if this has more to do with the scheme or the quarterback.  Seven plays were charted as deep passes, according to NFL.com’s Game Center.  The first five were intended for Roddy White, with these results: reception, reception, incomplete, interception and incomplete.  It doesn’t seem like, but I don’t know if that’s because Mike Smith wanted to take things slow with Chris Redman under center, or if Redman simply doesn’t have the ability to stretch the offense.  With how the Eagles offense rolls, I would think Smith would want to stretch the offense to get back into the game.  Maybe it’s just that Smith didn’t trust Redman to sling it.
On another note about Redman, I’m not sure why FOX was making excuses for his start.  Daryl Johnston acted as if Redman has started for numerous years.  Thing is that Redman started the season finale in 2007.  His story of once being an insurance salesman is three seasons old.  In my opinion, Redman should be prepared for his start, and his unspectular play doesn’t deserve a pass.  He couldn’t get the offense going, while the defense simply isn’t good enough to up for the offensive shortcomings.  The Atlanta defense simply can’t generate enough big plays, makes it apparent the Falcons won’t be contending for a playoff spot.
Finally, there were coaching shortcomings, particularly during the Philadelphia goal line stand.  The Falcons run four consecutive runs inside the Eagles 7 shortly before the half, but couldn’t get the touchdown.  Sure, Atlanta used the strong Jason Snelling in this situation, but it makes me wonder why the Falcons didn’t pass sometime after they had a 2nd-and-goal at the 1.  If Philly was keying into the run, you’d think the Falcons would’ve tried a change up.  Also, I wonder why the Falcons didn’t try a field goal after the previous failures, given that a stop would’ve given the Eagles all the momentum before the half.  Nevertheless, Philly marched down the field immediately to start the second half for a touchdown that put the game of reach.

Dallas at New York (Giants 31, Cowboys 24)
Early, it seemed like it was the Giants offense in the slump, not the defense.  The Giants defense wasn’t allowing big plays and was showing some teeth, all the while the offense was stuck in neutral.  However, when the New York offense finally got going, it came at such an opportune time that it brought back memories of the divisional round game two years ago.  The Giants were able to get two touchdowns within the two-minute warning before the half, helped in part by Marion Barber’s fumble.  Instead of a 10-point lead, the Cowboys trailed by four with their control of the game all gone.  Dallas made a similar mistake back then by allowing the Giants respond to a 10-minute touchdown drive with a touchdown drive of their own in a less than a minute.  Dallas lost that game by four, and lost this one by seven, so the pre-half Giants surge made the difference both times.
Of course, it didn’t help that the Cowboys allowed a 74-yard TD pass to Brandon Jacobs.  Bradie James could’ve stopped Jacobs, but simply took a terrible angle and allowed Jacobs to run by him.  Then, the Cowboys made a poor challenge, disputing if Jacobs was out of bounds.  It would’ve made more sense to challenge if Jacobs got the ball over the pylon.  In the end, the lost challenge hurt, as Dallas could’ve reviewed a catch by Steve Smith that was wrestled out.  Long TD drives hurt the Cowboys, and hurt them again when Domenik Hixon returned a punt for a touchdown to make it a two-touchdown game.
Overall, the Dallas offense looked good, but there was no deep game.  Nine plays were charted as deep passes, with five coming in the fourth quarter, according to NFL.com’s Game Center.  Romo had 55 passing attempts in the game.  Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett deserves credit for moving the ball with short and intermediate routes, but he still couldn’t exploit the New York secondary enough.
This shows what the Cowboys’ true problem is.  One game, the deep game works while the short passes are missing.  Another game, the short passes are effective while the deep game is non-existant.  Last time against the Giants, the running game dominated while the passing game failed.  This time, it was the reverse.  In other games, the offense will shine while the defense makes big mistakes (much like this game).  In other games, the defense looks strong, but the offense turns the ball over too much.  It’s been the failure by the Cowboys to put together a complete game that led to December struggles in the past, and it looks on pace to happen again.

San Diego at Cleveland (Chargers 30, Browns 23)
This game proved that the Browns have a some more hope for the future.  Gone are the likes of Derek Anderson and Jamal Lewis, and now there’s Brady Quinn and Jerome Harrison.  Both played rather effectively.  More importantly, Harrison added a quick step to the run game, and Quinn won’t make the Browns worry about serious accuracy issues.  Meanwhile, Quinn has seven touchdowns and no interceptions in his last three starts.  Next, the Browns will need to get rid of the deadweights on defense, particularly the linebacker corps.  The pass rush has lacked, while the backup linebackers (who are currently starting, thanks to numerous injuries) haven’t done much to help the team.
On a side note, CBS had a graphic saying that the Browns had scored a rushing touchdown in 17 games.  That primarily makes me wonder how on Earth the now retired Jamal Lewis still had his starting job.  Lewis a big guy, and he still couldn’t make it into the end zone.  It’s unfortunate he had to retire due to injury, but he was done to begin with.

Minnesota at Arizona (Cardinals 30, Vikings 17)
Yes, Brett Favre arguably had his worse game of the year, but that performance is far down on the list of “gunslinger gone awry.”  Favre had two near interception thrown at Adrian Wilson, then later had two picks when he forced passes.  Still, with just one game like that in 12 all season, I think number 4 deserves a free pass.  Yes, I’m being serious.
The biggest issue for Minnesota right now has to be the pass defense.  Not only does the Minnesota defense have a 91.2 passer rating, but the passing D has allowed 7.2 yards per attempt, which is close to the bottom third of the league.  The biggest factor in the Minnesota’s struggles is the absense of Antoine Winfield.  Winfield has missed the last six games, and if he misses playoff action, it could mean an early exit for the Vikings.  Winfield is the third-ranked corner, including sixth in coverage, according to Pro Football Focus, despite missing six games.  Minnesota’s postseason fortunes could very much rely upon the health of Winfield.

Baltimore at Green Bay (Packers 27, Ravens 14)
This was exactly the type of game I’d expect from both teams.  Both teams were very sloppy, combining for 310 penalty yards, which is second-highest in NFL history.  Packers corner Tramon Williams was particularly sloppy, committing three major defensive pass interference penalties.  Even Derrick Mason, negating a deep pass reception with an offensive pass interference.
Both teams have shown signs that they contend deep into the season, but allow silly mistakes and inconsistencies to hamper them.  This problem reared its head again in this game.  At least the Packers offensive line is continuing to improve.  As I’ve said before, if the unit comes around, Green Bay will be competing for a Super Bowl, given they don’t allow their penalty problems to hold them back.  The run game is solid under the wings of Ryan Grant, who hasn’t made big plays this year, but has been generally rock of consistency.  We know what Aaron Rodgers can do under center when he’s not under duress.  Then finally, there’s a passing defense, which bottled up Ray Rice and shut down Joe Flacco, minus the DPI penalties by Williams.  Of course, Williams did get lucky and made up for his transgressions somewhat when he intercepted a Joe Flacco that was among the worst made this season.  Don’t be surprised if it’s Green Bay who gets past the dome teams in the postseason and plays in Super Bowl XLIV.

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Sidebar

• Crazy endings, part 1: The early slate of Sunday games had three crazy endings.  The one I’ll use for a warm up is the big headline game from Sunday, the Saints comeback over the Redskins.  I have already my feelings about the Saints with their luck.  After all, how often do teams get the fortune of their opponents blowing a 23-yard field goal to effectively put the game away?  That’s the fortune the Saints received when Washington’s Shaun Suisham missed his chip shot field goal.  There’s simply no excuse for the miss.  Washington even had a chance to win later, but Jason Campbell (who had a fantastic game otherwise) threw an interception with less than a minute in regulation and Mike Sellers fumbled in overtime.  Washington simply choked, but no mistake was as egregious as the Suisham missed field goal.
• Crazy endings, part 2: Next up on the list is the Patriots-Dolphins ending.  Despite Tom Brady having a historically strong start, the Patriots lost consecutive games for the first time in three years. The problem seems to be the lack of a killer instinct by this New England D.  The Patriots blew a 10-point in Denver in Week 5, the infamous 17-point lead in Indianapolis, then a 14-point lead today.   Patriots fans can give all the excuses they want, but bottom line is that these struggles show significant decline.  TABR may still think the Patriots are not a mediocre team, even after the loss, but the Patriots shall remain a Super Bowl pretender due to the defensive collapses against quality opponents on the road.  On another note, New England falls to 0-5 in pure road games.  That’s not how a true contender should play.
• Crazy endings, part 3: And the kingpin of the crazy endings belongs to the Raiders-Steelers ending.  35 points points between the two teams in the fourth made a defensive battle turn into a late shootout.  Now, I know what you’re thinking: how on Earth did the Raiders get involved in a shootout?!  I don’t get it either, but the Steelers past fourth-quarter defensive struggles (against Chicago, Cincinnati and San Diego in particular) should put some things into perspective.  As for some interesting notes on this ending, I’ll let the Cold, Hard Football Facts take it away:

The Steelers were the defending champs playing at home against the worst team in the AFC over the last seven years. The Raiders were 2-11 in their last 13 trips to the Eastern time zone and had not earned a Quality road win in years, except for last year’s season finale victory over Tampa, which was in the midst of a major collapse.

Pittsburgh has had trouble closing throughout the year, but the loss to Oakland was a disaster beyond recognition: the Raiders had not scored 21 points in an entire game this year. But they ripped off 21 points in the fourth quarter alone to edge the formerly proud Steelers.

Oakland rookie receiver Louis Murphy, who had scored just two TDs in his first 11 games, caught two touchdown passes in the fourth quarter against the Steelers, including a career-long 75-yarder.

Raiders quarterback Bruce Gradkowski, meanwhile, compelted 20 of 33 for 308 yards, 9.3 YPA, 3 TD, 0 INT and a 121.8 passer rating against a defense that was among the best in the league against the pass last season.

For Gradkowski, the numbers marked career bests in yards, YPA, TDs and passer rating.

• Crazy calls, part 1: Look, it was bad enough for the struggling Texans to have to deal with Rex Grossman as the quarterback for about a quarter.  The Texans quickly suffered a 17-0 deficit after Grossman came in for the injured Matt Schaub, so Schaub came back in the game.  Schaub was bringing the Texans back into the game, and Houston was rolling all fine and dandy until a Chris Brown pass was called upon at the Jacksonville 5.  Yes, it seemed smart to run a RB pass while the quarterback was marching his team back into the contention.  Brown’s pass was intercepted, the Texans lost by five and Houston’s season is effectively over.
• Crazy calls, part 2: I love the man as a coach, but Mike Singletary has to be my goat of the week.  Admist the numerous questionable calls, much of which has to do with the lopsided pass-run ratio (46 dropbacks and 12 runs), Singletary calls for a pass on both a third-and-goal and fourth-and-goal from the Seattle 1.  This sequence, which could’ve given the 49ers an early 7-0 lead, resulted in a turnover on downs.  Later, in the game’s last minute, Singletary opted for three consecutive passes.  The completed pass was ran out of bounds, and the other two attempts were incomplete.  Seattle had enough time to kick for the win.  I’m not sure what on Earth made Singletary have so much trust in Alex Smith, who still hasn’t proven he can lead his team to respectability in the standings, while not giving Frank Gore a chance to work his magic (or run out the clock for overtime).  Nevertheless, Olindo Mare didn’t just kick Seattle to victory, but San Francisco to the sidelines for the winter.  This one was just plain stupid, Samurai Mike.

Regular Season FBS Top 25

Well, that was close for Texas.  Nebraska was tenths of a second away, depending how whether you actually want to take the extra fractions of a second needed to start the clock after the snap, from earning a major upset victory that would’ve prevented Texas from making the BCS National Championship Game.  Indeed, Texas will after the Hunter Lawrence 46-yard field goal that gave the Longhorns 13-12 victory over four-loss Nebraska.

That begs the question: does Texas deserve the number two spot in my rankings, and a NCG berth, at that?  It’s very hard to say, which creates a big problem in my mind.  Let’s face it: there are four quality undefeated teams who all deserve a shot at the championship.  The BCS doesn’t provide an adequate answer to the question, “Who deserves to make the NCG?”  The reason is because the BCS doesn’t provide an adquate evaluation of teams, ommitting any quality stats that would help to properly evaluate teams.

The truth is that TCU never needed to sweat out Cincinnati’s come-from-behind victory at Hienz Field against Pittsburgh, or the last-second victory for Texas.  The truth is that TCU should’ve already secured a berth in the championship if the BCS knew what’s best for the game.  Instead of a four-team tournament, we get the NCG with two somewhat pleasing BCS bowl games (TCU v. Boise State and Cincinnati v. Florida) that virtually mean nothing.

Now I know you saw this complaint coming once the season was over, so I’ll end it there.  Here’s the final top 25 of the 2009 FBS regular season.  (There is the Army-Navy game left, but that game won’t affect the rankings.)

The top ten:
1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5
6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10

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1) Alabama 12-0 (13-0)
2) Texas 13-0 (13-0)
3) TCU 11-0 (12-0)
4) Cincinnati 11-0 (12-0)
5) Florida 11-1 (12-1)
6) Boise State 12-0 (13-0)
7) Oregon 10-2 (10-2)
8 ) Ohio State 10-2 (10-2)
9) Georgia Tech 10-2 (11-2)
10) Iowa 9-2 (10-2)
11) Penn State 9-2 (10-2)
12) Virginia Tech 9-3 (9-3)
13) Miami (FL) 8-3 (9-3)
14) LSU 9-3 (9-3)
15) Pittsburgh 8-3 (9-3)
16) Nebraska 9-4 (9-4)
17) Arizona 7-4 (8-4)
18) Oregon State 7-4 (8-4)
19) Stanford 8-4 (8-4)
20) West Virginia 8-3 (9-3)
21) Wisconsin 8-3 (9-3)
22) Oklahoma State 8-3 (9-3)
23) BYU 10-2 (10-2)
24) USC 8-4 (8-4)
25) Northwestern 7-4 (8-4)
Next: North Carolina, Texas Tech, Central Michigan, Connecticut, Mississippi

Four or More: Conference Champion Repeats

Well, I’ve finally lived to my promise.  Here’s a list of the calendar years in which at least four teams have repeated as conference champions.  Note the years for which the research applies to:

• MLB: World Series era (1903, 1905 to 1993, 1995 to present)
• NBA: Finals era (1950 to present)
• NFL: Championship era (1933 to 1965) and Super Bowl era (1967 to present)
• NHL: Stanley Cup era (1927 to 2004, 2006 to present)

You’ll shortly find out that the 1950s and 60s had the most stability among the powers, all the while the United States transformed from times of good livin’ and prosperity to social upheaval and guerrilla conflict.  Thanks to the Browns, Canadiens, Celtics and Yankees, among others, the two decades had at least four teams repeat an astounding 13 times.  Besides those two decades, the feat occurred just 10 times.

And, of course, we finally learn that 2009 marked the first time in 11 years that four teams repeated as conference champions.  It’s not a shock that was the last time we saw a championship rematch before May and June’s Penguins-Red Wings Stanley Cup Finals rematch.  That rematch, in case you forgot, pitted Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen and the Bulls against John Stockton, Karl Malone and the Jazz.

Below is the list, one which shows the calendar year in which the team made the repeat.  So, for example, the 1993 Toronto Blue Jays will be on the list for winning back-to-back AL pennants, not the 1992 Blue Jays.  I know, make the American reference, then the Canadian reference.  Let’s make things fair.  Years with more than four repeats will be in italics.  1953 came very close to having all four championship rematches.  Unfortunately, the top-seeded Red Wings were upset by the Bruins, making it seven of eight conference repeats.

Years with 4+ Conference Champion Repeats — 23 times
1937: New York Giants and New York Yankees (MLB), Boston/Washington Redskins (NFL), Detroit Red Wings (NHL)
1939: New York Yankees (MLB), Green Bay Packers and New York Giants (NFL), Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL)
1943: Saint Louis Cardinals and New York Yankees (MLB), Chicago Bears and Washington Redskins (NFL), Detroit Red Wings (NHL)
1952: New York Yankees (MLB), New York Knicks (NBA), Cleveland Browns (NFL), Montreal Canadiens (NHL)
1953: Brooklyn Dodgers and New York Yankees (MLB), Minneapolis Lakers and New York Knicks (NBA), Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions (NFL), Montreal Candiens (NHL)
1954: Minneapolis Lakers (NBA), Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions (NFL), Montreal Canadiens (NHL)
1955: Syracuse Nationals (NBA), Cleveland Browns (NFL), Detroit Red Wings and Montreal Canadiens (NHL)
1956: Brooklyn Dodgers and New York Yankees (MLB), Fort Wayne Pistons (NBA), Detroit Red Wings and Montreal Canadiens (NHL)
1958: Milwaukee Braves and New York Yankees (MLB), Boston Celtics and Saint Louis Hawks (NBA), Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens (NHL)
1959: Boston Celtics (NBA), Baltimore Colts and New York Giants (NFL), Montreal Canadiens (NHL)
1961: New York Yankees (MLB), Boston Celtics and Saint Louis Hawks (NBA), Green Bay Packers (NFL)
1962: New York Yankees (MLB), Boston Celtics (NBA), Green Bay Packers and New York Giants (NFL), Chicago Black Hawks (NHL)
1963: New York Yankees (MLB), Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers (NBA), New York Giants (NFL), Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL)
1964: New York Yankees (MLB), Boston Celtics (NBA), Detroit Red Wings and Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL)
1966: Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB), Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers (NBA), Montreal Canadiens (NHL)
1969: Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers (NBA), Montreal Canadiens and Saint Louis Blues (NHL)
1973: Oakland Athletics (MLB), Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks (NBA), Miami Dolphins (NFL)
1978: Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees (MLB), Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens (NHL)
1979: Seattle SuperSonics and Washington Bullets (NBA), Dallas Cowboys (NFL), Montreal Canaidens (NHL)
1984: Los Angeles Lakers (NBA), Washington Redskins (NFL), Edmonton Oilers and New York Islanders (NHL)
1992: Atlanta Braves (MLB), Chicago Bulls (NBA), Buffalo Bills (NFL), Pittsburgh Penguins (NHL)
1998: Chicago Bulls and Utah Jazz (NBA), Green Bay Packers (NFL), Detroit Red Wings (NHL)
2009: Philadelphia Phillies (MLB), Los Angeles Lakers (NBA), Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins (NHL)

Week 13 Pick’em

Hopefully I can keep improving this week.

1 point
Philadelphia at Atlanta
Falcons fans can look at the QB situation with the half-full and half-empty.  The half-empty approach: Matt Ryan is out, which cooks any shot at the Falcons keeping step-to-step with the Eagles’ playmaking ways.  The half-full approach: Chris Redman had all week to practice, and was solid in relief last week.  More of the former will apply.
Saint Louis at Chicago
One may argue that the Rams have played better since the Bears’ bye week in Week 5.  Sadly, I wouldn’t argue against that claim at this point.  Of course, Chicago’s lone win since the bye came in a home game against a current one-win team.  Maybe Chicago can build a semblance a run D to get the victory.
Detroit at Cincinnati
The Bengals D makes every opponent scratch and claw for every big play.  The Lions D makes teams that can muster only six offensive games in a virtual 16-game season look like the New Orleans Saints on offense.  Does anybody need to question this outcome?
Oakland at Pittsburgh
After the Steelers have lost three in a row, I expect them to come out enraged.  They’ll be doing it against the lowly Raiders, which makes this an easy choice.
New Orleans at Washington
So many marveled at how easily New Orleans disposed of the Patriots on Monday Night Football, yet so many now are going for the upset in D.C.  Even though I think Jason Campbell gets a raw deal, I don’t see how he can keep up with Drew Brees and the buzzsaw that is the Saints offense.
San Diego at Cleveland
I’m wondering how this Browns O can do against the Chargers.  Can they actually break into double digits?  That’s the only drama in this mismatch.

2 points (division games)
New York (A) at Buffalo
The two teams look relatively similar.  They both have awesome pass defenses and suspect offenses, especially in the passing game.  However, for all that I’m aired out my concerns about the Jets hurting from Kris Jenkins’ injury, they’ve been fine against the run.  Plus, there’s that Darrelle Revis guy to help get the win.
Tampa Bay at Carolina
So Jake Delhomme will have to sit, due to injury.  I would say having to start Matt Moore would restrict the passing offense, but Delhomme hasn’t even made big plays to couple with his INTs.  I can’t envision Moore has a worse game than Jake did last week, so I’m going with the home team.
Houston at Jacksonville
The Jaguars have just faced three quality opponents.  Sure, their lone quality win came in Houston, but the Texans honestly looked far more talented in that game.  If the Texans want to be taken seriously, they will break the three-game winning streak with a decision road win against a pretender in the division.
Denver at Kansas City
I’m going to put this game on upset alert.  Why?  Because the Chiefs still seem to compete at home.  Of course, though, there’s the Human Horseshoe I’m not willing to bet against.
New England at Miami
The Patriots don’t lose back-to-back games.  Even though the Patriots tend to struggle in Miami, and New England has yet to win a pure road game, I won’t bet against Belichick’s ability to avenge the previous week’s letdown.  Plus, something makes me think Tom Brady wants to stick it to Joey Porter again.
Dallas at New York (N)
This one’s a toss-up for me.  I actually had the Giants before, but switched to the Cowboys as a tactical move.  Tony Romo hasn’t lost in the Meadowlands, and the Giants are truly falling apart.  Also, the Giants won’t have Antonio Pierce for the rest of the year.  Either way works.
San Francisco at Seattle
The 49ers still have hope to the Cardinals of last year, as in the team that won the division at 9-7, thanks to a 6-0 division record.  San Francisco would love to get the sweep on Arizona, but must take care of business in Seattle to improve to 4-0 in the NFC West.  I think they will do most of the damage on defense.

3 points (Games of the Week)
Tennessee at Indianapolis
Something’s got to give.  Two of the top three winning streak for QBs.  As for the teams, the Colts have their 20-game winning streak, hoping to tie the league record.  Meanwhile, the Titans have their own five-game streak.  Sure, Vince Young has become a complete QB, but I think he fits into the Indy “bend, but don’t break” philosophy well.
Minnesota at Arizona
Part two of fitting into the “49ers can still win the division” theory.  Right now, the Vikings look like arguably the best team in the league, so I won’t bet against Minnesota, even if Favre’s three INTs look too good to be true.  I’ll trust Favre to close out the regular season strong.
Baltimore at Green Bay
Both teams play better than there record indicates, but the Packers only need the offensive line to come through to be a perennial Super Bowl contender.  Heck, TABR is already smiling big upon the Packers, who have the best TO margin in the league.  Expect Joe Flacco to be picked at least once.

Week 12 Pick’em Results

This week worked out great, minus the Texans blowing their 17-point lead.  Had Houston won, I would’ve gained seven points on the lead, instead of one.  I guess I’ll take a 13-3 week, heh.

1 point
Oakland at Dallas
New York Giants at Denver
Carolina at New York Jets
Jacksonville at San Francisco
Arizona at Tennessee

2 points (divisional games)
Green Bay at Detroit
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Miami at Buffalo
Washington at Philadelphia
Seattle at St. Louis
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Kansas City at San Diego
Chicago at Minnesota

3 points (Games of the Week)
Indianapolis at Houston
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
New England at New Orleans

I stand with a somewhat improved total of 192 points (of a possible 303), which is well behind the leader’s total of 210 points in the Street Crew Pick’em.  Meanwhile, in the MySpace Pick’em, I have a 115-61 record, which is still well behind the leader’s 125-51 record. My respectful competitors, CHFF and FO, stand with a 121-55 record and a 114-60 record, respectively (not sure what two games are missing for FO).  It’s still improving.

2009 Week 12 TABRankings

I like being correct, even if part of that involves being dead wrong.

Don’t look now, but the NFC North has the best 1-2 punch in the league.  Just like I thought, except for the fact that it’s the Bears folding like an accordion under pressure and the Vikings looking like the team that will ride with a newcomer quarterback to the conference championship game, instead of the other way around.  Whoops.

Many will question why the Vikings are ahead of the undefeated Colts.  Just a few reasons for this:

1. Minnesota has led for the second-longest time this season, and just 1:30 less than the Saints
2. Minnesota has been the best team on third down this season
3. Minnesota has been this good despite an extremely unlucky -14 fumble differential, which helps him in TABR
4. Indianapolis’ only true advantage may have been not having to face the Steelers in Pittsburgh

Even more will question why the Packers sit at number four.  Just a few reasons for this:

1. Green Bay is among the top six in time led, TOP, 3rd down differential and weighted DVOA
2. Green Bay has an outstanding +17 TO margin, which is at least +5 better than any other team

Bottom line is that both teams have been great around the board in the important areas.  The eye test should be supporting this assertion, except for the problems relating to the struggling Packers’ offensive line.  Even that unit may be coming around, so this 1-2 punch are well on track to create some big fireworks in the playoffs, possibly amongst themselves.

Of course, they won’t be the only ones providing an exciting display.  In fact, the entire top eight have good enough marks in this week’s TABR to currently be considered legit Super Bowl Contenders.  Yes, that even includes the Bengals, who have only an above average DVOA.  Perhaps the scariest team of the bunch is the San Diego Chargers.  Just six weeks ago, they stood at 2-3 with the 21st spot in the TABRankings.  Now, they sit at number seven, with at least solid marks in every category.

Three teams may feel slighted: the Cowboys, Broncos and Titans.  Dallas sits a spot behind a wild card and a record two games worse.  I’m just hoping Dallas with finally learn their lesson, and just win the turnover battle.  Sure, the Cowboys aren’t giving the ball away like candy anymore (Tony Romo has just seven INTs in 11 games), but they have only mustered 13 takeaways.  If you can’t force opponents to make mistakes, with just four games against quality opponents, you’re not going to last long in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Denver sits behind the team they just smoked, a team they have a better record than.  The lesson here is to get the lead early, so you can put the pressure on the other team.  The Broncos have lead more than 30 minutes in a game just four times.  It may come with a tough schedule (a league-high eight games against quality teams), but you have to muster more than 1:46 in the lead in wins over the Cowboys and Patriots.

Finally, to Tennessee, where the blazing-hot Titans only sit at 21, barely getting out of the doldrums with the rest of the bottom dwellers.  Sure, the Titans are looking much better, but DVOA supports the theory that they were terrible in the 0-6 start and (at best) above average in the 5-0 run.  Couple that with a below-average TO margin and mediocre marks in the other categories, and you have a hot team with a poor TABR.

The top eight:
1 , 2 , 3 , 4
5 , 6 , 7 , 8

A quick look at the formula: (W-L Pct)+(Away Pct/2)+(Div Pct/2)+(Time Ahead Avg x 2)+(TOP Avg)+(3rd Down Diff x 2)+(TO Margin x 3)-(Fumbles Kept Diff)+(DVOA Rating x 2)

**DVOA is the creation of Football Outsiders, not me.**

Now, onto the rankings themselves:
Super Bowl Contenders (more than 292.50)
1(1) New Orleans Saints (11-0) 439.85
2(2) Minnesota Vikings (10-1) 421.20
3(3) Indianapolis Colts (11-0) 384.49
4(5) Green Bay Packers (7-4) 352.74
5(4) New England Patriots (7-4) 330.38
6(6) Philadelphia Eagles (7-4) 310.44
7(9) San Diego Chargers (8-3) 299.42
8(8) Cincinnati Bengals (8-3) 293.91
Super Bowl Pretenders (225 to 292.50)
9(7) Arizona Cardinals (7-4) 263.97
10(11) Baltimore Ravens (6-5) 262.66
11(13) Dallas Cowboys (8-3) 252.64
12(10) New York Giants (6-5) 236.33
13(15) Denver Broncos (7-4) 235.40
Mediocre Teams (112.50 to 225)
14(14) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) 208.41
15(12) Miami Dolphins (5-6) 200.41
16(16) Houston Texans (5-6) 199.25
Average Mark (180.00)
17(19) San Francisco 49ers (5-6) 169.39
18(18) Atlanta Falcons (6-5) 158.00
19(17) Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5) 149.49
20(21) New York Jets (5-6) 138.42
21(22) Tennessee Titans (5-6) 118.75
Bottom Dwellers (less than 112.50)
22(20) Carolina Panthers (4-7) 104.96
23(24) Buffalo Bills (4-7) 103.72
24(26) Seattle Seahawks (4-7) 75.45
25(25) Washington Redskins (3-8) 56.91
26(23) Chicago Bears (4-7) 36.55
27(27) Kansas City Chiefs (3-8) 12.46
28(28) Oakland Raiders (3-8) -11.33
29(29) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-10) -44.53
30(31) Saint Louis Rams (1-10) -55.23
31(30) Detroit Lions (2-9) -70.00
32(32) Cleveland Browns (1-10) -77.68

TABR Quality Standings
The Bills were the huge winners, getting a victory against quality team Miami while having the Jacksonville loss taken away from the quality standings.  Meanwhile, that Jacksonville team that’s been on both sides of the average fence still has just played three games against quality teams, and that’s why the Jaguars are hanging in with the sixth seed (despite having a mediocre 6-5 record).  The Cardinals are the only team with just as easy a schedule, which is why I expect them to lose the next two games, which could give the 49ers the division lead.  Don’t chalk Arizona as a playoff team just yet.

Team	Won	Lost	Team	Won	Lost
Bengals	5	2	Vikings	3	1
Ravens	3	5	Packers	1	3
Steelers	3	3	Bears	1	5
Browns	0	8	Lions	0	6
Team	Won	Lost	Team	Won	Lost
Patriots	2	3	Cowboys	1	3
Dolphins	0	4	Eagles	1	3
Jets	2	4	Giants	1	5
Bills	1	4	Redskins	1	4
Team	Won	Lost	Team	Won	Lost
Colts	6	0	Saints	4	0
Jaguars	1	2	Falcons	1	5
Titans	2	4	Panthers	1	4
Texans	1	3	Buccaneers	1	6
Team	Won	Lost	Team	Won	Lost
Chargers	4	3	Cardinals	2	1
Broncos	5	3	49ers	1	4
Chiefs	1	6	Seahawks	1	5
Raiders	2	6	Rams	0	6

Deciphering the Cloudy Picture in the Week 12 Observations

Now’s the time to determine whether you’re a cup half-full or cup half-empty type of person.  Either the increasingly convoluted wild card picture is a great storyline, as there should be numerous key matchups in the final five weeks of the season, or a bad storyline, as the mediocre teams have found a way to stay in the hunt.

Seven teams with a 6-5 or 5-6 record will fight for the sixth and final seed in the AFC, that is if Denver’s win against the Giants did more than simply stop the bleeding.  However, if the Broncos lose in Kansas City next week, consider it an eight-dog race for the two wild card spots.  Meanwhile, the NFC has six teams with a 7-4 record or better, but the Giants can make things interesting by getting their season back together and defeating the Cowboys and Eagles.

Each team in the hunt has its own story.  There’s the rebuilding Jaguars, who currently hold the final spot in the AFC despite being outscored by 53 points so far this season, thanks to just two games against teams with a winning record.  There’s the Texans, fighting hard for a playoff spot, but losing by a combined 28 points since their Week 1 drubbing at the hands of the Jets.  Then there’s the Titans, who have won five in a row after an 0-6 start, thanks to hot hands of Vince Young and Chris Johnson.  And that’s just in the AFC South.

Couple the wild card madness with the nine games I was able to watch this week, and that leaves a lot of madness to decipher from Week 12.

Green Bay at Detroit (Packers 34, Lions 12)
The Packers had a horrid start on special teams.  Jordy Nelson fumbled the opening kickoff.  The Packers then had a penalty on the follow kick return and punt return in the first quarter.  However, all the early special teams problems did was delay the dominance of the Lions.  Sure, Detroit had some early hope with a 7-0 first quarter lead, thanks to Nelson’s fumble, but this game wasn’t competitive at all.
Detroit had some luck coming through unscathed when Mason Crosby missed a field goal on the Packers’ first offensive drive.  Instead, it was a poor interception thrown by Matthew Stafford on an out route, intended for Will Heller of all people, that gave Green Bay control of the game.  The defense forced turnovers, as Stafford again showed what problems ail him.  Meanwhile, the offensive line gave its best protection of the year.  Twice I saw Aaron Rodgers have a day’s worth of protection in the first quarter; the first came on the Packers’ first down with a pass to Donald Lee, and the second came on the deep pass to Driver to end the quarter.  That’s what playing the collegiate-level defense in Detroit can do to you.
I had a Thanksgiving lunch instead of Thanksgiving dinner (it’s what my family does, and I thankful for it, so I can watch the Cowboys), so I missed most of the second quarter.  However, I didn’t miss much.  Once I got back to the game in the second half, it became apparent the difference between an Aaron Rodgers-led offense and a Matthew Stafford-led offense.  There’s the reliability of Rodgers versus the carelessness of Stafford.  The latter gave a chance for elite players like Charles Woodson to catch in with a big game.  Stafford now averages two interceptions per game.

Oakland at Dallas (Cowboys 24, Raiders 7)
The Cowboys looked like they were going to have yet another slow start, but the offense got going once the connection between Tony Romo and Miles Austin got going.  Sure, there was the big play to Austin on Dallas’ second offensive play from scrimmage, but the New Jersey native truly became a factor in moving the chains in the second quarter.  Austin had five catches in the Cowboys’ two touchdown drives in the second quarter.  Credit Jason Garrett for calling up some great intermediate routes, but I still contend there’s much let to be desired with the short, quick routes.  The Cowboys won’t have the luxury of facing an opponent like the Raiders again this year, as they have four games left against winning teams and a road game against the defensive-minded Redskins.
Meanwhile, the Dallas defense continues to thrive on Thanksgiving in the Tony Romo era.  That’s now just 29 points allowed in the last four Thanksgiving games.  Of course, it helps that Dallas had to face the unspectacular Bruce Gradkowski.  I thought the media was a bit too positive about Gradkowski heading into this game.  Sure, he’s a lot better than JaMarcus Russell, but a real pro quarterback should be a lot better than Russell.  Gradkowski didn’t make any crucial errors, but it was obvious he can’t complete on a great level.
Finally, it’s on to the Cowboys special teams.  Simply put, this unit has improved a lot, and much of it has to do with the kick coverage.  One simple reason can explain this improvement: the Cowboys drafted David Buehler in the fifth round this year to do kickoff duty, and Buehler has come through in a way one could best imagine.

New York at Denver (Broncos 26, Giants 6)
With the news that a high school friend passed away and the Thanksgiving lunch hangover falling upon me, I was honestly to see this blowout relieve me of the duty to seriously break this game down.  It was one-sided from the kickoff, and the Giants were spared by the Broncos’ luke warm day in the red zone.  Denver could’ve easily scored north of 30 had they converted in the red zone.  Meanwhile, Kyle Orton was good in this game, besides his lone INT of the night.  Bottom line, the Human Horseshoe “one loss at home” rule still applies.

Washington at Philadelphia (Eagles 27, Redskins 24)
This game started with an unsurprising surprise.  The attempted for an onside opening kickoff wasn’t a bad idea, and it totally caught Washington off balance, which is a sign of the Redskins being somewhat ill-prepared.  Unfortunately, the play needs to be properly executed to work, so Washington was spotted a great chance to start with a 7-0 lead and the ball in the second half.  While the idea wasn’t bad, it made me wonder why Andy Reid wanted to pull this off against the totally not dangerous Redskins.  I’ll agree with those who said that this move was a possible sign of a lack of confidence in his team.  I mean, why else would somebody want to do this against a team that scored more than 17 points just once all season entering this game?
Washington did get the 7-0 lead, but it just delayed the inevitable offensive run the Eagles were going to have.  DeSean Jackson’s first red zone touchdown to tie the game was called back on a Brent Celek OPI, so Jackson instead gets a 35-yarder to the end zone for the lead in the next drive, which was still his shortest TD catch of the year.
While that lead was short-lived, Philadelphia comes away with the lead at the half, thanks to a questionable decision by (insert offensive coach) to push the ball on offense at the end of the half.  Washington had 42 seconds at their own 35 ahead on the road; sit on it!  Instead, the Eagles get an INT and another field goal to have the lead and the momentum.  To make the matters, Washington still didn’t sit on it on the final play of the first half, and Jason Campbell was sacked.
As the Eagles struggled to win the game, capped when Campbell missed an open 4th-and-1 pass when he could’ve ran for the first down, I never saw the urgency from Philly.  The Eagles finally got a spark late in the game during both the game-tying and game-winning drives, but I still didn’t see urgency.  As for Campbell, he may have made the game-ending mistake, which shouldn’t have ended the game since Juqua Parker roughed the passer without a flag, but he looked great otherwise while throwing on the run.  For the second week in a row, he looked strong under pressure on the road against a quality division opponent and had some great throws while moving in the pocket.

Kansas City at San Diego (Chargers 43, Chiefs 14)
There’s much to assess in this whitewash.  The Chargers exercised complete control of the game, with partial thanks to rare Kansas City blunders.  For all the offensive struggles for the Chiefs, they haven’t turned the ball over much, but that simply wasn’t the case in this game.  San Diego made mince meat of the Kansas City errors, scoring a touchdown after each of the four Chiefs’ turnovers.  Meanwhile, Philip Rivers once again looked great, and used Antonio Gates particularly well.  CBS pulled this game by the third quarter in favor of…

Jacksonville at San Francisco (49ers 20, Jaguars 3)
…a less one-sided game, but still a hefty beating.  The Jaguars’ struggling red zone offense was the story of the afternoon.  In the second half, the Jaguars had a sack/fumble, a fourth down sack/fumble, a missed field goal and a fourth down sack in their four drives.  The first three drives ended in the red zone.
In the drive that ended with a missed goal, I would’ve went for the touchdown.  Jacksonville had a 4th-and-goal from the SF 3 with 7:39 left and the Jags down by 17.  The current drive had taken 5:26 off the clock.  That one seems like an automatic go-for-it situation.
I can’t say much about this game, as I started to get coverage in the midst of the missed field goal drive.

Chicago at Minnesota (Vikings 36, Bears 10)
This game was pretty like the rest of the 4:00 block.  Problem was that FOX hung on to airing this game while something truly special happened in Nashville, which I’ll talk about later.  More than a little something is telling that this had to do with Brett Favre, who had a great game, but was doing against a poor defense.  We needed somebody to come on the TV screen, classic cop style, and say something to the effect of, “Move along, there’s nothing to see here.”
There’s one thing I would like address in this game, though, and it’s the play of Sidney Rice.  Rice started off as an ultra-reliable intermediate route runner, reeling off catches of 14, 14, 10 and 11 yards.  By now, it’s pretty evident that Rice is emerging as an elite player, much like another Rice I’ll discuss next.  This emergence has largely been chalked up to the presence of Favre.  It’s not that easy.  Sure, Favre deserves credit for helping out, but Rice was simply on the verge of breaking out.  He had the talent all along.  We can’t tell if Favre was the tipping point of Rice’s emergence, as Rice is making his breakout in his third season, which is a rather customary time for receivers to break out.  And it’s not like the Vikings will try Tarvaris Jackson just to see if it’s more Rice or more Favre.  Bottom line: this offense is simply working fantastic together.  It’s part Favre, part Adrian Peterson, part Sidney Rice, part Percy Harvin, part Visanthe Shiancoe and part offensive line.
For Chicago, Jay Cutler again struggled with the deep ball.  His pass along the right sideline to Johnny Knox was spot-on for a touchdown, however he had a pass along the left sideline that was picked off in the end zone.  The defense struggled as well, setting up what has seemingly become a typical blowout for the Bears.  Chicago’s just really bad right now, and I was admittedly WAY off on this team.  So much for feeling the mojo of the 2007 Cowboys and 2008 Cardinals…

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Ravens 20, Steelers 17 OT)
I agree with the MSM in saying that Dennis Dixon looked pretty darn good early in the game.  Dixon went 8-of-10 with a touchdown in the first half.  The Ravens made an early statement on offense, which could have come from the excitement of not having to face Ben Roethlisberger, but Dixon wasn’t fazed.  Even though Dixon calmed down in the air, much of which had to do with the Baltimore defense (4-of-16 in the second half and overtime), he still hung in there and even scored on the ground with a nice QB draw.  Besides the OT INT, which can probably be chalked up as a great play by Paul Krugar as well as sheer inexperience for Dixon, I think Dixon did his share to keep Pittsburgh in the game.
The call of the day had to go to Baltimore’s fourth down pass to Ray Rice.  Rice lined up as a wide receiver and found himself in a great matchup to not only get the first, but rumble deep into Steeler territory.  Not only did the fourth down attempt come at the right time, with 3:30 left to go, but it used the biggest weapon on the Baltimore offense.  With Rice’s vision, quickness, balance and receiving skills, he has become the complete package, and an elite player in this league.  He probably beats out Miles Austin, Sidney Rice and a handful of others for my breakout player of the year.
For all that Dixon and Rice did well in this game, the game ended very sloppy.  Reckless physicality led to numerous late game penalties.  Add the sack and fumble at the end of regulation that was coupled with the referees incorrectly marking the ball at the fumble recovery (not the fumble itself, which went forward and was recovered by the offense), and there was a pretty disappointing end to this exciting game.

New England at New Orleans (Saints 38, Patriots 17)
Monday night we were provided with yet another example of the New England defense having big problems against the elite offenses.  Sure, most teams are having the same problems, but Bill Belichick doesn’t thrive to have his team play like most teams.  Virtually every time I looked away, the Saints had a big play.  I missed the McKenzie INT, the Thomas TD, the Henderson TD, the double fumble, the 68-yard pass to Colston and the Sharper INT.  This game truly uphold the notion that you can’t look away without missing something special.
The McKenzie INT got things going for New Orleans.  So many were surprised to see McKenzie make an immediately, almost as if McKenzie never played with the Saints before.  Did everyone forget that McKenzie spent the five previous seasons with the Saints?  Had it not been for a major knee injury, McKenzie probably never would’ve been released by New Orleans.  I wasn’t surprised that McKenzie had some left in the tank, even with the new defense in New Orleans.
On the other side of the ball, I find it kind of funny that the Monday after the weekend I decided to take off, rather than address the years of at least four teams repeating as conference champions and the Wes Welker effect on New England, Welker has his weakest game of the season.  Welker was still able to muter six catches, but the Saints were able to keep Welker in front of them all night, which was probably the most impressive thing the defense did.  Most evidence would suggest that the Saints rely to much on the blitz and the turnover, but doing little things like limiting Welker’s YAC will go a long way in holding down the fort at home in the playoffs.  (By the way, that Welker analysis is still coming!)
To conclude, this is indeed a major win for the Saints, but I couldn’t see it happening otherwise.  The crowd was more than ready for this one, and a great offense was going up against a limited defense that struggles when it put away opponents early.  The fit was great for New Orleans, but more big games are still ahead against Dallas and in the playoffs.  Will there be enough gas left in the tank for a successful playoff run?

——————————————————————————————————————–

Sidebar

• Beware: Revis Island. I’m still wondering why Jake Delhomme, who’s struggled all year to pass the ball without turning it over, would try to attack Darrelle Revis.  Even though Revis had an absolute fluke pick-six, Delhomme goes to Revis’ way again later in the first half … and Revis picked that one off to.  According to Pro Football Focus, Revis came into the game with a league-best 14.8 pass coverage score, and receivers caught passes in Revis’ area just 43.1% of the time (28 of 65).  For a quarterback that’s losing his job, he certainly wasn’t smart to be attacking the best CB in 2009.  (Now, Delhomme won’t have to worry about losing his job, as he has an injured hand and will probably miss some time.)
• Warning: Falcons curses coming to fruition? In the Falcons escape from losing a home game to a 1-9 team, they lost both Matt Ryan and Michael Turner to injury.  Ryan will probably miss a few games, while I haven’t heard much about what’s going on with Turner.  Chris Redman, who did rather well against Tampa Bay (but it’s Tampa Bay, mind you), will have to start at home against Philly in a pivotal matchup.  Given what happened on Sunday, it looks the Falcons will be heading back to .500 with a strong possibility of the curses staying intact.
• Weird fact: Texans early problems targeting Andre Johnson. While the Texans looked like a playoff team in the first half against the Colts, here a weird caveat to the game: the three incomplete passes Matt Schaub threw in the first half were all intended for Andre Johnson, and all three came in the second quarter.  Schaub next non-completion was an interception — and it was intended for Andre Johnson.  Too bad that weird caveat came back to haunt the Texans when the Colts came back yet again in the fourth quarter.
• WOW: Another time-less score allowed by the Browns. The Browns can somehow feel happy that they trail 10-0 to the Bengals in Cincinnati, except for the fact that Shaun Rogers horse collared Carson Palmer on the sack to the end half.  A 15-yard penalty and a time-less converted field goal later, the Browns are down 13-0.  Cleveland loses by nine, instead of six.  Actually, trailing by just six could’ve changed this game around, possibly leading to another upset at the hands of the Bengals.  Sadly, Rogers won’t get retribution, suffering a season-ending leg injury in the fourth quarter.
• Question: What exactly was Raheem Morris thinking? Poor Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris made numerous poor decisions in the Tampa Bay’s defeat from the jaws of victory.  Morris not only attempts a fake punt pass on a 4th-and-8 at the Falcons’ 39, but he sits on the ball two drives later at roughly the same spot.  Morris not only calls a timeout earlier in the drive in which he sat on a 50-something yard field goal, but he calls two more as the Falcons try to engineer a comeback drive for the win.  The results were disastrous.  The fake punt pass was incomplete.  The 50-something yard field goal (51 to be exact) was missed.  The Buccaneers allowed the touchdown with 23 seconds left and no timeouts (instead of two or three).  Sorry, coach, but your careless mistakes in handling the small matters cost your team dearly.  You can’t coach a winning team with that garbage in the clutch.
• EPIC: Quite simply, the drive of the year. I have no doubt that the game-winning TD drive by the Titans against the Cardinals was the drive of the year.  In fact, I’d be willing to bet that if the drive happened in the playoffs, it would trump even The Drive.  Instead of 98 yards for the tie with time left on the clock (The Drive), Young went 99 yards for the win with no time left on the clock.  Oh, and a touchdown was necessary in both situations, so Elway’s task wasn’t much easier.  The drive took 18 plays, with the last 16 after the two-minute warning.  Perhaps the most impressive factor of this drive, even more impressive than the three converted fourth downs, is that Young got the ball to receivers with enough time to get out of bounds.  The six completed passes before the game winner to Kenny Britt all stopped the clock.  The Titans didn’t call a timeout in the drive until 16 plays had already taken place.  By my estimation, Tennessee had nine successful plays in the drive, but the passes out of bounds can for more than just moving the chains.

Nov. 29 FBS Top 25

So much for stability.  Two top ten teams lost, and the Alabama and Texas both faced scares that threatened their perfect seasons.  Outside the undefeated top six, each team has multiple losses.  Does this not tell an obvious tale of the necessity of a playoff system in certain situations?

Even if Cincinnati loses to Pittsburgh, there will likely be four undefeated teams.  If Cincinnati wins, there will be four of the five undefeated teams will more than legit arguments for deserving a title shot.  Instead, the computers will churn out an inaccurate results that will reward the winner of the SEC championship and Texas, given the Texas beats Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship.

The Nebraska win would be the one loss that could help to even things out.  Still, at worst, there will be three undefeated teams left.  Let’s face it, there will be no true champion this year.

The top ten:
1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5
6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10

——————————————–
1) Florida 11-0 (12-0)
2) Alabama 11-0 (12-0)
3) Texas 12-0 (12-0)
4) TCU 11-0 (12-0)
5) Cincinnati 10-0 (11-0)
6) Boise State 11-0 (12-0)
7) Oregon 9-2 (9-2)
8 ) Ohio State 10-2 (10-2)
9) Georgia Tech 9-2 (10-2)
10) Iowa 9-2 (10-2)
11) Penn State 9-2 (10-2)
12) Virginia Tech 9-3 (9-3)
13) Pittsburgh 8-2 (9-2)
14) Miami (FL) 8-3 (9-3)
15) Oregon State 7-3 (8-3)
16) LSU 9-3 (9-3)
17) USC 8-3 (8-3)
18) Nebraska 9-3 (9-3)
19) Stanford 8-4 (8-4)
20) Oklahoma State 8-3 (9-3)
21) Wisconsin 7-3 (8-3)
22) Houston 9-2 (10-2)
23) California 7-3 (8-3)
24) West Virginia 7-3 (8-3)
25) BYU 10-2 (10-2)
Next: Clemson, Northwestern, Arizona, North Carolina, Texas Tech



Week 12 Pick’em

We have determined the GOTW just yet (well, at least the other two besides New England-New Orleans), so the GOTW will be switched later today or tomorrow.  For now, Happy Thanksgiving!!

1 point
Oakland at Dallas
The Dallas offense quite frankly looks completely out of rhythm, but maybe the late game-winning touchdown drive got the Cowboys going.  Still, the Cowboys have owned Thanksgiving since Romo has gone under center.  The Cowboys have outscored their last three opponents (combined record 7-24) 106-22.
New York Giants at Denver
Since Orton is starting, I’ll go with the Human Horseshoe one home loss rule.  Orton already lost at home as a starter against Pittsburgh.  Both teams are struggling, and the Giants have looked better recently, but the HH rule is in effect.
Carolina at New York Jets
Both quarterbacks have been mistake prone, to say the least.  The difference in this mediocre matchup could be the run game.  Sure, Thomas Jones has been solid, but he can’t compare to the duo DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, especially since the Jets don’t have former Panther Kris Jenkins in the middle of the defense.
Jacksonville at San Francisco
The Jaguars have traditionally struggled on the West Coast.  Take the 41-0 drubbing they received out in Seattle earlier this year as an example.  Meanwhile, the Jacksonville secondary has been bad enough to make me think that 49ers can get away with starting Alex Smith.  I’ll take the West Coast advantage.
Arizona at Tennessee
Can we trust this undefeated start on the road for the Cardinals, including wins across country at Jacksonville and New York? I’m a law of averages guy, so I’ll tend to say no.  However, the Titans have somewhat broken that law by losing their first six and winning their first four.  Can we trust Vince Young just yet?  I say so.

2 points (divisional games)
Green Bay at Detroit
Detroit did get a huge motivational victory last week, but keep in mind the win was against the Browns.  Sure, Green Bay lost Aaron Kampman and Al Harris for the season, but the Packers much better than the Browns. Plus, I can’t ignore what TABR says about the Packers.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
The Falcons have struggled, and Matt Ryan is definitely in a sophomore slump.  Perhaps it is best for face a 1-9 team at home, but I don’t see this one as a chalk-it-up win.  Maybe Josh Freeman has a great game in him today, but I don’t see enough evidence for that happen, and for me to pick the upset.
Miami at Buffalo
The Dolphins have looked strong in the AFC East, while the Bills have struggled in the division.  Don’t expect Chad Henne to have a great game against the good Bills pass D, but Ricky Williams should look strong in this game.  Meanwhile, the Miami pass rush should be able to do just enough for the win.
Washington at Philadelphia
The Eagles have had their fair share of letdowns, but I can’t see it happening here.  Yes, Washington has played well the past two games (and has the lone win against a winning team outside the division), but there’s still the shortcomings on offense that make me think the Skins can’t keep up with the Eagles.
Seattle at St. Louis
Here’s Saint Louis’s chance to finally get a win at home, which they haven’t had since trouncing the Cowboys over a year ago.  The Rams have been close to winning the past few weeks, but I bet the Seahawks have been waiting for a winnable game like this one.  Watch out for Justin Forsett today.
Cleveland at Cincinnati
You don’t expect the Bengals to drop two winnable games like that, do you?  If so, then the Bengals would be really cursed from staying atop the AFC Central.
Kansas City at San Diego
Much like the matchup above me, this one pits a great team at home against a poor team.  I’ll take my chances with the home team.
Chicago at Minnesota
Even though it’s hard to grasp at times, TABR suggests that this matchup is much like the two above me.  Chicago can prove wrong by winning, that’s all.

3 points (Games of the Week)
Indianapolis at Houston
The Texans were close in Indianapolis, and they should at least keep it close again.  Matt Schaub is more than capable of keeping up with Peyton Manning.  The big key of this game will be the defenses.  Can the Indy D bend, but not break?  Can the Texans force a mistake out Manning?  If the latter happens, the Texans may win.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
The absence of not just Ben Roethlisberger, but Charlie Batch will hurt.  This isn’t saying Dennis Dixon isn’t a future starter, because nobody knows if he is, but it sucks to have your first start against the Ravens.  The run D should be able to force the pressure on Dixon, which won’t be pretty.
New England at New Orleans
Just sit back and enjoy this matchup.  I don’t the Patriots D will be able to stop the Saints offense, just like the Pats couldn’t stop the Colts.  The New England D has looked good, but only against the cream puffs.  Meanwhile, the Pats have yet won a pure road game, with their lone win away from home in London.